Saskatoon-University has become a Conservative vs. Liberal horse race since the last federal election in 2021. Over many election cycles, this riding has seen the Conservative candidate out front with the NDP challenger running second, but Saskatoon-University voters appear to be prepared to buck this trend in 2025. The Liberals have surged into a strong second place and the NDP is firmly in third place according to riding level polling conducted in Saskatoon-University from April 8th to 11th, 2025.
With a large local sample size of 386 voters in the riding and a margin of error of 5.41%, the trends are clear. While a Conservative victory is probable on April 28th, NDP fortunes have fallen sharply with nearly half of 2021 NDP voters saying they are planning to vote Liberal in 2025. Given Mark Carney’s high favourability ratings among both Liberal and NDP voters and national polling trends, this swing in voter intention is not a surprise.
In addition to 2021 NDP supporters moving to the Liberals, about one in seven 2021 Conservative voters also plan to support Mark Carney’s Liberals. This comes as a bit of a surprise, but it appears that Carney’s economic experience and high personal favourables have moved some right-of-centre voters to the centre.
Many of these swings in support can be explained by national trends with NDP support at lows not seen in decades and Liberal support higher today than it was on election day 2015 when that party won a majority government under then-leader Justin Trudeau.
While these shifts in support are fascinating to keen political observers, the result on election day in Saskatoon-University appears to be heading towards another win in the blue column. With NDP support in the mid-teens, the math will be tough for “Anybody But Conservative” voters to get a candidate across the finish line on April 28th. Only further consolidation of non-Conservative votes behind the second place Mark Carney candidate could put this riding in play.
See the full polling report here.