Conservative MP Blake Richards will sail to re-election on September 20th according to poll conducted September 14th of Banff-Airdrie residents
A poll of 350 Banff-Airdrie residents found that Derek Sloan is running 6th in his race to remain a Member of Parliament. In 2020’s Conservative Leadership Election, Derek Sloan ran fourth in Banff-Airdrie, garnering 262 votes or 16% of the vote.
“Derek Sloan likely made a strategic error running in Banff-Airdrie,” says Zach Jeffries, Principal of Spadina Strategies.
“He has failed to consolidate the potential voters of the People’s Party and Maverick Party behind him and has little to no hope of an upset win. Even in the best case scenario should that consolidation happen, he would be unable to best incumbent Blake Richards according to our poll.”
The poll, conducted the night of September 14th, 2021, found that when asked for their local candidate preference, that the Conservatives were in the lead (43.7%) followed distantly by the Liberals (12.9%), NDP (9.8%), PPC (9.8%), Maverick (7%), Sloan (6.1%), Greens (1.3%), and Other (0.7%). 6.7% of Banff-Airdrie respondents remain undecided.
The data are weighted by age, gender from the 2016 Canadian Census, and differential turnout by age from the November 2019 Labour Force Survey, both by Statistics Canada, to produce a projection of likely results. The margin of error for a survey of 350 respondents is ±5.23 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews (IVR). Respondents were interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. Residents were identified using Postal Codes, and matched with the over 2900 Postal Codes used by Banff-Airdrie residents. The margin of error for this survey of 350 respondents is ±5.23 percentage points and is accurate 19 times out of 20. The data was weighted by age and gender from the 2016 Canadian Census, and differential turnout by age from the November 2019 Labour Force Survey, both by Statistics Canada, to produce a projection of likely results.
The survey was conducted by and paid for by Spadina Strategies.
Spadina Strategies uses a unique targeting system to enable measuring the opinions of hyper-local populations with accuracy, which is especially useful for measuring the opinion of neighbours on local development projects in large cities, or the opinions of residents of smaller centres.